Limited support from slight cost increase; prebaked anode raw material prices hide risks of callback [SMM Weekly Review of Prebaked Anode]

SMM July 10 News:

Raw Material Side: This week, the raw material market has shown a differentiated trend. The petroleum coke market has generally held up well, while the coal tar pitch market has been weak. In the petroleum coke market, product performance has been slightly differentiated. The low-sulphur petroleum coke market has continued its upward trend, while prices in the medium- and high-sulphur markets have fluctuated, with an overall upward bias. Specifically, this week, the prices of petroleum coke under CNOOC have risen slightly, with increases of 20-50 yuan/mt to around 3,520-3,550 yuan/mt. Binzhou Petrochemical has resumed shipments during the week, while Taizhou Petrochemical continues to undergo maintenance. In PetroChina's northeast region, due to moderate downstream orders and tight supply caused by refinery maintenance plans, petroleum coke prices have continued to rise. In particular, Daqing Petrochemical and Fushun Petrochemical have frequently increased their petroleum coke prices. Currently, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices in the northeast region range from 3,400 to 4,200 yuan/mt. Sinopec's refineries have shown good shipment performance for petroleum coke, with some refineries pushing up prices slightly during the week, with increases within 200 yuan/mt. Local refineries have also shown moderate shipment performance, with downstream enterprises returning to just-in-time purchases, providing some support for petroleum coke prices. Overall, prices have generally been stable with a slight upward bias, although some enterprises have seen slight price pullbacks due to previously high prices. SMM expects petroleum coke prices to be generally stable with a slight fall next week. According to SMM data, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries was reported at 2,334 yuan/mt, up 0.34% MoM. The coal tar pitch market, however, presents a different picture. The weak decline in raw material coal tar oil prices has dragged down the cost side of coal tar pitch prices. The operating load of deep-processing enterprises has fallen back from highs, and downstream enterprises have shown low enthusiasm for purchasing, leading to a weakening of coal tar pitch prices during the week and a lack of upward momentum in the short term. As of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 3,517 yuan/mt, down 2.63% MoM. Overall, the cost support for prebaked anodes remains relatively strong.

From the supply side, prebaked anode enterprises continue to adopt a "produce based on sales" strategy. This week, the industry's operating rate has remained stable, with no significant fluctuations in production schedules. Market supply has maintained a dynamic balance, with no significant increases or decreases. Additionally, in 2025, there are multiple projects under construction in the prebaked anode market, with some projects already in operation or entering the final stages. The overall operating situation is active, with new capacity continuously being released. For example, the gradual implementation of large prebaked anode projects in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang has further expanded the capacity base of the prebaked anode industry, increasing pressure on the supply side. It is expected that future market competition will become more intense. On the demand side, with the southward shift of capacity in the Shandong region and regional adjustments in aluminum electrolysis capacity, overall capacity has been operating smoothly.

Brief Commentary: The prebaked anode raw material market experienced mild fluctuations overall this week. According to SMM data, as of July 10, the cost of prebaked anode in China was approximately 4,760 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.26% MoM. Currently, the industry is maintaining a high level of operation, with steady demand performance. In the short term, prebaked anode prices are expected to remain stable. From the perspective of raw materials, although petroleum coke prices have risen recently, this round of price increases was mainly driven by fluctuations in enterprise procurement rhythms — particularly boosted by the stockpiling sentiment in the anode material market, which led to a rapid market response and short-term support, while actual downstream demand did not show significant growth. Based on comprehensive analysis, the price center of petroleum coke is still expected to trend downward in July, making it difficult to provide effective support for prebaked anode prices. Moreover, as procurement sentiment gradually cools down in the future, there is a risk of a high-level correction in petroleum coke prices. It is necessary to continuously monitor the supply and demand dynamics and price trends of the prebaked anode and its raw material markets.

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